A World Gone Wireless
Consultancy and Survey firm Nielsen Co. estimates that 17% of all Americans — 50+ million of us — already rely on cell phones to make all their phone calls. They have severed the cord, and are no longer paying for landlines. This shouldn’t be news to those of us who don’t make caves our home, but it seems to be news to landline providers, according to their consistent price hikes and lack of competition. Most people I know who received a 3-6% hike in their phone bills recently came to the same conclusion; why have a landline?
Nielsen believes such wireless substitution will skyrocket in the next few months, as consumers try to cut their spending in the face of worsening economy and higher gas and food prices. The ranks of wireless-only consumers will rise to 20% of the U.S. population by year-end, Nielsen estimates. One in five consumers will not have a home phone line by January. That’s staggering, and could be a crushing blow to those companies who rely on landline service as a mainstay in their bottom lines.
AT&T and local telcos could could be in big trouble, as a good chunk of their business is still landline based (amazing given how phone technology and tech in general has evolved, even in the last 5 years or so).
My own personal guess: Within 25 years, landlines will be extinct. Gone. You heard it here first.
Windows 7 in official closed beta, on track for wider beta by December?
Microsoft is on tap to talk publicly about and show off Windows 7 at two of its upcoming tech conferences this fall. But that does not mean the Windows team necessarily will be distributing bits at those shows.
A small and select group of testers (read: MS supporters more than likely) already have gotten their hands on Windows 7 builds. Microsoft has released two M (or ”milestone”) designated Windows 7 builds (M1 and M2), plus various interim updates, to select customers and partners who have been sworn to secrecy. And the Windows client team is in the midst of putting finishing touches on M3, if you believe the whispers.
But Beta 1? Currently it’s not in the cards for Microsoft to release this code to testers until a week before Christmas, according to folks claiming to be privvy to Microsoft’s Windows 7 schedule.
Might there be some kind of pre-beta — something like a Community Technology Preview (CTP) build — that Microsoft will deliver to a broader set of private testers than those currently getting regular internal builds? Odds are this may happen, but the consensus seems to be not to expect Microsoft to distribute Windows 7 bits more widely until the Windows 7 is feature-complete or very nearly so. After the Vista incident, this may be a very smart move.
On September 10, Microsoft acknowledged that it plans to use its Connect site to sign up potential Windows 7 testers at some point. Christina Storm, a program manager on the Windows Customer Engineering feature team says: ”When we release the Windows 7 beta, we will also be collecting feedback from this (Windows Feedback) panel and asking for participation from a set of Windows 7 beta users. Our current plans call for signing up for the beta to happen in the standard Microsoft manner on http://connect.microsoft.com. Stay tuned!”
If Microsoft does release Beta 1 of Windows 7 in mid-December, that will mean the company is aiming to deliver the final Windows 7 product less than a year after the official beta begins. (Microsoft has said, publicly and privately, that late 2009 is their target date for release of Windows 7. The “you can’t claim we’re late” date remains the first part of 2010.)
Would a less-than-year-long beta be unprecedented? Not really. Short betas of products pretty much cast in stone aren’t unusual from the Office team. But looking at MS’s early track record with bugs in initial releases, I can’t say it makes me feel better that its on track this “quickly”. I’d much prefer they take their time, and get it right.
Online Movies - Are we there yet?
The recent surrender of HD-DVD in the latest format war has got us thinking about online video rentals - so we thought we’d review the options available today.
Streaming or downloading full movies instead of renting or buying physical media is nothing new. As happens time after time in the world of technology the real first adopters are the adult industry and the hackers/pirates. The adult movie folks have been providing video content only for years now. And we all know well that hacker-kids have distributed full dvds in online format for some time as well. If both these groups can handle it successfully why not the movie studios?
With the rise in popularity of Youtube consumers have grown familiar with online videos and the entire medium has gained market acceptance. Fears that studios once had over the customer acceptance of less-then-highest quality video have disappeared. Consumers bandwidth will only increase in the future allowing for higher quality.
Netflix: As part of the base netflix subscription all customers can watch unlimited movies online - free. Tough to argue with that deal. The biggest downside is the selection, of course the online library of movies are limited. Quality is above average and the program is very easy to use. As netflix offers more movies into this category it will have an even bigger market impact. We have to wonder when/if they will start charging for the service. Another challenge for Netflix is getting onto the TV and into the living room - not everyone is willing to watch movies on the PC or laptop. Watch for a partnership with Microsoft, Nintendo or Sony in the future. But right now it is the market leader for cost and ease of use.
Amazon Unbox: Amazon has been at this market for quite some time (opened in 2006). Unbox offers a wide selection of newly released and classics at near DVD prices ($14.99 for most movies) and rentals for lower cost (4.99 in most cases). Although the service received mixed reviews when it was released it has improved over time.
The videos can be played on about 20 handheld devices (again - big drawback if you can’t connect the PC to the TV). They’ve since partnered with Tivo to allow purchase of videos which can be sent directly to your living room Tivo system for review. Of course Tv shows are also available for those into that type of thing (who really buys and watches old tv episodes?!)
Apple - iTunes: When it comes to online media - iTunes is still the name we all think of first. Apple has made available movies for download since 2006. Of course they use the itunes market place and application to support the download service. The move catalog matches the size of Amazon’s and most physical rental stores. Pricing is equivalent to Amazon (about $14 a pop) with the edge going to Apple for ease of use. Naturally the advantage is apple’s in the device category as legions of iPod Video’s and Nano’s can show movies and tv shows purchased through itunes. Recently Apple released the AppleTV device (getting into your living room.. sound like a familiar theme?). It allows for move rentals (HD content too) as well as the rest of the itunes HTPC functionality - plugged into your TV of course. So far its received a bit of a lackluster response (for an Apple product that is) and we’ll hold our breath before we tell anyone to run out and buy one.
Comcast (ondemand): The biggest name in the video on demand cable industry - comcast leads the pack. One of the first cable companies to roll out on demand video (which comes free with their digital cable package). This competes with downloadable purchases and rentals head to head. Comcast has the advantage in many areas since they are already entrenched in the consumers living room, have market share and control much of the delivery. The ease-of-use factor cannot be dismissed either. Consumers have embraced the video on demand service in a surprising fashion and other cable vendors have been struggling to catch up.
Directv on demand: Directv is fighting to catch up to Comcast on the movie delivery/video on demand front. Their vod service is still in beta. The distinct disadvantage for Directv is not controlling the consumers broadband as Comcast does, meaning Directv VOD users must rely on their existing dsl/broadband to download video content to their DVR system.
Slingbox & Orb: Both worth a mention here as similar software packages and devices which allow for ‘place-shifting’ of video content. You can pull your recorded TV episodes from the living room and watch them on the cell phone, in the hotel room, or at work. Not mounting any big-time competition with the video rental/download services yet - but keep an eye on them. Either could provide a medium or means of easy distribution in the future.
None of these are set to overtake Blu-ray or DVD sales in 2008 - but with the delay in adoption of hidef movies caused by the format wars you can bet that they’ve gained traction.
You can bet your gold-plated dvd’s that downloads will overtake physical disc purchases by 2011.
Any comments or additions are welcome. We’ll be glad to update this as they come in.
Windows Home Server - Will consumers bite?
What Is Windows Home Server?
Once again the creative team at Microsoft sees a need and moves to fill it. The Windows Home Server system is the newest product in Microsoft’s attempt to further saturate the consumer market. Windows Home Server is a customized OS (built on the Windows 2003 Server Base) which runs on as a standalone (and headless) server.
The WHS system is marketed towards the non-technical user as a one stop solution to consumer needs such as nightly backups, file sharing and remote access. WHS was created to run autonomously and with very little end-user configuration. Install and go. The headless comment above refers to the fact that WHS does not require any keyboard or mouse input. All system management is done via a web browser to the pre-installed management console. It allows you to connect all of your home’s computers to one single computer functions as the main server for gathering data, virus checks, and backup duties.
Microsoft hopes to bring many of the functions of a small business or datacenter into the consumer home, with no knowledge or effort required. Microsoft has tried (with some success) to get into the consumers living room and out of their computer desk in the past (remember the WebPC) and of course the Xbox. Most of the big technology firms forecast large market share developing in home networked ‘appliances’ (sounds fancier then PC right?). Most see WHS as Microsoft’s latest attempt at winning a chunk of that market.
We’ll see if the consumers bite.
Who Can Benefit From It?
Anyone who has multiple PC’s in the home can benefit from Windows Home Server. Trying to share files, back files up or monitor virus activity across 4 or 5 different computers can be a chore if they don’t share the same network. WHS runs automatically and without user intervention. End-User Friendly (at least that is what we’re are told).
What Are It’s Features?
* File Sharing - now you can move files effortlessly throughout your home from computer to computer without using E-mail or some other clunky way of doing it.
* BackUp Files/Programs - Backing up files is a snap now because the Windows Home Server takes a ’snapshot’ of each connected computer’s hard drive and stores it; if that data is subsequently lost it can be quickly restored. Since this feature is automatic, you do not have to constantly back up your files manually. This is one of the main selling points of the WHS system.
* Recovery of mistakenly erased files/media via the Volume Shadow Copy Service - if you’ve ever mistakenly erased something and then wanted it back, you can recover it quickly with Windows Home Server.
* Remote Access from Inside the Home Or Outside - Not only can you access any computer on the network that is inside the home, you can access all the computers on the network from outside the home as well. Windows Home Server offers a SSL based interface that functions like a web browser. Just like logging onto a webpage on the world wide web, you can access your home’s computers from anywhere and download or upload data.
* Security Awareness - Windows Home Server can track the health of all the PC’s on the network, monitoring each PC’s virus status and the functionality of the firewall. It will alert you of any virus threat on any of the computers, or any attempts to compromise the firewalls.
* Centralized Printing/Fax/E-Mail services - With Windows Home Server, fitting files on a disk in one part of the house to take it to another part of the house to the PC connected to the printer/fax machine is a thing of the past. Now every PC in the house can send and receive printing jobs, faxes, and email all to one central location.
How Much Does It Cost?
That depends on if you want to buy just the Windows Home Server software, or buy it already loaded onto a central hub computer. Buying just the program on CD-Rom will cost you from $150 to $200 (depending on which retailer of course). When you go to Microsoft’s homepage regarding Windows Home Server and look to purchase it, they take you to this page:
http://www.microsoft.com/windows/products/winfamily/windowshomeserver/buy.mspx
There, they give you a list of 8 retailers who are mostly selling computers (ie. Appliances) to function as the central server with the Windows Home Server software already loaded onto it. You can buy the program separately, but you have to hunt for it. Microsoft seems to prefer you buy it already loaded onto a computer from one of their partner retailers.
Do I Have To Update/Upgrade All My Home’s Computer’s To Use Windows Home Server?
Nope. It’s built on the same codebase as Windows Server 2003 Service Pack 2. It will run on both Windows XP and Windows Vista OS’s. Windows Home Server requires no extra upgrades or purchases to run on your PC as long as you have a current XP or Vista installation.
What Are The Requirements To Run Windows Home Server?
You need to have the following minimum specifications to run the program:
* 1.0 GHz Intel Pentium 3 (or equivalent) processor
* 512 MB RAM
* 80 GB internal hard drive as primary drive
* 100 Mbit/s wired Ethernet
An Overview of Social Platforms and the OpenSocial Initiative
It seems that everyone today webpage that ends up being their own persona to the world. Be it a superstar athlete, a musician, an actress, or just some guy down the block, everyone seems to be connected and blogging on-line.
And anyone who is anyone has a Myspace or Facebook page these days to connect with their fans, their friends, or even nobody in particular. (60 Million active facebook users vs. 110 Million for myspace)
For the purposes of this article we’ll keep it simple and leave the discussion with the two giants in the industry.
Facebook made waves last year by opening their API to allow for user created 
facebook apps. This created a surge in popularity for Facebook, as well as a mini virtual market for small casual applications that run the gamut from trivia games to trivial time-wasters.
Myspace is rumored to announce their own custom application system in the very near future.
These changes have transitioned both myspace an facebook into more of a platform then just websites. The user base already existed in large (large) numbers, but now the content is much more engaging, customizable and dynamic. The social platform tempts advertisers as the holy grail of marketing, and users were hooked before they even knew it.
Of course Google couldn’t stand on the sidelines very long. Google’s OpenSocial is just the latest attempt to join in the fray of the white-hot social platform development trend. Launched in November 2007, Google released a collection of API’s built to work together and to standard the core and method which websites and services work and speak together.
You can think of Open Social as a similar initiative for social platforms as Open ID is for User IDS. While Facebook and MySpace got an initial headstart in launching the Social Networking revolution, Google has actually made large strides into the medium in just a few short months.
Since the launch, OpenSocial has gathered support from the likes of LinkedIn, hi5, XING, Friendster, Plaxo and Ning, among others to create a huge conglomerate of social networking sites and applications that are all now linking together to form one community that uses one standard for all the software applications used across it.
Facebook, with a reported 60 million users, doesn’t seem to be that worried yet since they believe their users are satisfied with the service and the applications and netware that run over it. Sooner or later, however, as OpenSocial and the network it is creating across the internet continues to build and gain size, the two will almost inevitably be forced to join together or clash over user bases that will be huge.
Google has already extended an olive branch according to some reports, and Microsoft, which owns Facebook, rebuffed their offer at a partnership.
As the recent Open ID initiative demonstrated last year, there is strong movement in the internet community to bring barriers down and let users bring a distinct digital identity with them wherever they go electronically. It remains to be seen if while users are beginning to enjoy seamlessly moving about the internet with one sole digital identity, if they will have any enthusiasm for a protracted trade war between two conglomerates determined to rule the internet social networking community.
Technology: How has it affected the 2008 Election
For the first time ever, all of the major candidates have teams in their respective camps who’s sole job is to reach voters through the internet and other emerging technologies.
The vital key for any major is name and face recognition. That’s why whenever election time rolled around you ended up driving or walking by countless signs that said “Vote for [Insert Name Here}!!!” in big bright letters, often accompanied by a picture of the candidate.
The theory being even if you know nothing about that candidate or where he stands on the issues, if you recognize his name and his face, but his opponent is a stranger to you, you are more likely to give your vote to the recognized candidate.
Politics is the ultimate people person job. To get the job you have to make a large amount of people in the county, state, or country think favorably of you. That means making personal contact with them. Or at least looking like you’re trying to.
During the past century developments in mass communication technology had a direct impact on the American political process in many ways. The advent of radio and television meant that public figures could suddenly have audiences in the millions, not just the thousands. This drastically changed the manner in which candidates ran for office. Instead of variety of ‘whistle stops’ along a campaign trail where people had to be interested enough to travel to where the candidate was speaking, now they could hear and see the candidate talking about his views right in the comfort of their own home.
Political handlers and power brokers immediately seized on the advantage that TV and Radio could give them in presenting their candidates to the public. Especially live television, seeing and hearing the person in real-time, giving statements and answering questions, was far better than meeting with mass crowds and attempting to shake a few hands and pat a few backs. Meeting a candidate in person was often a chore, involving travel, and even then most people could only directly see the candidate for a few moments. With TV and Radio, now they could see the candidate up close, and hear him or her talk at length. This exponitially increased both name and face recognition with potential voters.
As the new century has dawned, technological innovation has continued at a rapid rate. In just the last 8 years the internet has come to play a key role in elections in this country. Just in the area of political discourse, the internet has made great contributions; organizations such as MoveOn.org and RealClearPolitics.com have provided a forum for people to discuss their ideas and strategies. Political sites such as The Daily Kos and Free Republic can get over a million visits from readers in a day, many of whom engage in debate and the sharing of ideas.
It used to be that town hall style meetings would have to be held to get together like-minded citizens to organize a political effort. Today all you need is a website and an e-mail address and you can organize an internet ‘town hall’ meeting that spans the country in the thousands, if not the millions.
In this year’s Presidential Elections, each candidate is well aware of the impact successfully conveying their ideas and personality across mass media is going to affect their chances of getting elected. Now they not only have to craft messages for the TV and the Radio; they also must construct ads and make appearances for interviews on websites that appear only on-line.
The speed of information plays such a dramatic factor in the present day elections that each and every statement made by a candidate must be carefully weighed. Within a matter of minutes a picture or soundbite from even the smallest town, college or remote location can be picked up and seen by millions online. Every debate and conversation analyzed by thousands of bloggers, and every nuanced guesture critiqued by the masses.
Many would say that this truly does bring the elections towards a truer form of democracy - where the ’every-man’ gets a chance to weigh in and make a fact based decision on each candidate (if they desire to do so).
Others believe that the parity seen in recent elections (2000-2004) is a result of the mass of information which is readily available and will continue to be the trend. Perhaps in past years whistle-stops, name recognition and/or a debate or two were enough to insure a landslide. Now millions of Americans watch every move and listen to every word. No matter the policitcal stances taken the pure amount of communicatino and information available may be bound to create a close election result.
Whoever wins in the elections this year, you can be sure they will give lots of credit for their victory to those campaign workers who dealt with internet media presentations and advertisements, their PR management team who handled the constant barrage of critisicm from the bloggers and their writers for keeping each and every campaing stump clear from danger.
Music Download Services: Choices for 2008
As little as 8 years ago if you said the words “Music Download Service” to most people they would have looked at you with a puzzled expression on their face.
Not any more!
Today downloading music over the internet is one of the chief reasons many people want to get connected to the World Wide Web in the first place. Portable Music Players and then the advent of the Music Downloading Service in the past decade have vastly changed how music is made and marketed by it’s producers, and then distributed to it’s consumers.
If you’ve spent any time doing much of anything on the internet in the past year or two, chances are you’ve come across one of the growing Music Downloading Services that are now available.
The growth of this particular industry has actually led to a marriage of sight and sound; many popular PC video players available over the internet, such as RealPlayer or Window Media Player, now automatically provide connectivity to music downloading services. When RealPlayer is installed on a new computer it will also install a secondary program which offers music downloads from Rhapsody Unlimited, which also happens to be owned Real Networks, the creators of the Real Player.
Like many Music Downloading Services (MDS), Rhapsody offers a free trial period where prospective customers can download music for free until that trial period ends and a membership must be purchased for the service to continue.
Not all MDS’s are alike. Many of them have a different model of doing business.
Some MDS’s let you download as much music as you want, just as long as you pay your monthly subscription fee. Others charge you a small fee per each track downloaded from the service. And still others charge you a monthly subscription fee AND a per track downloaded fee.
Also, very few Music Download Services seem to still be using MP3’s (MPEG-1 Audio Layer 3) as their main format for downloading. Many of the services have now switched over to the Windows Media Audio format (WMA).
Most of the top MDS’s will have a song database of almost 2,000,000 to choose from.
E-Music and Wal-Mart have less, but unless you consider 500,000 to 1 million songs to be pretty small, that shouldn’t matter.
Even after you’ve downloaded the songs from their service, the MDS’s can still maintain control over them. Copy technology named DRM built into the files downloaded can limit the number of times a song can be burned to a CD, or if it can be burned at all. Microsoft has been a big supporter of DRM and has built support into Windows Media player to download the appropriate licenses and play DRM tunes. If the license is not found, the song cannot be played at all, nor copied or moved. In recent months an anti-DRM sentiment has risen through the music consumers and industry has begun to respond with non-DRM song downloads.
Some services will let you burn CD’s from whatever songs you downloaded from them. Others will only let you burn songs that you purchased individually for that purpose.
Many of the MDS’s require you to download an application to play their tracks. Tracks from those services are usually configured to ONLY run on that particular application. Other MDS’s will let you play their tracks on any media/audio player.
Rhapsody Music Service:
http://www.rhapsody.com/home.html
Subscription is $12.99 monthly plus 99 cents for each track downloaded / Must have Rhapsody application to play tracks / Number of songs: 1,000,000 / File Format: WMA / 99 cents for each track burned to CD.
Napster Music Service:
http://www.napster.com/choose/index_control_2.html
Subscription is $12.95 monthly for service, 99 cents per song for purchase./ Must have Napster application to play tracks / Number of songs: 5,000,000 / File Format: WMA - DRM / Only purchased tracks can be burned. ‘To-go service’ for additional cost allows you to take music with you on your portable device.
iTunes Music Service:
No subscription, but does have a 99 cent per track download fee / Must have iTunes application to play tracks / Number of songs: 5,000,000 / File Format: AAC - DRM(Advanced Audio Coding - specific to Apple iPods) / All tracks can be burned to CD’s but same playlist can only be burned up to 7 times / Tracks will only work on an iPod and no other portable players. Itunes has a 60% market share. TV Shows and Movies are now available as well.
Amazon.com:
http://www.amazon.com/MP3-Music-Download
Amazon is the upstart in the industry. Offering single song and album downloads at a price that undercuts itunes. Single songs are 89 cents each, albums are $9.99. The songs are mp3 format – and no drm. These means that the you can take your music and play it anywhere, copy it to a portable device or burn it to Cds. With the ease of use and the Amazon brand name this store is gaining momentum quickly. As it does so does the movement to offer DRM free tunes.
eMusic:
Charges a flat fee of $10 for up to 40 downloaded tracks / Requires eMusic Download Manager to access the songs, but they can played on any media/audio player / Number of songs: 500,000 / File Format: MP3 / Any track can be burned to a CD.
Yahoo Music (MusicMatch:
Subscription is $9.95 a month plus 99 cents per each track downloaded ($74 for a 2 year contract) / Requires Yahoo Jukebox application / Number of songs: 2 Million / File Format: WMA - DRM / All tracks can be burned to CD’s but the same playlist can only be burned up to seven times.
Virgin Music Service:
http://www.virgin.com/companies/virgindigitaluk/virgindigitaluk.aspx
Subscription is $7.95 monthly plus 99 cents for each downloaded track / Requires Virgin Music application / Number of songs: 1,000,000 / File Format: WMA - DRM / All purchased tracks can be burned to CD.
Wal-Mart Music Service:
http://musicdownloads.walmart.com/catalog/servlet/MainServlet
No subscription, just a fee of 88 cents for each track downloaded / Requires no application / Number of songs: 1,000,000 / File Format: WMA - DRM / Purchased tracks can be burned to a CD up to 10 times.
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Almost all of these MDS’s offer a free trial period, so you can test the waters before purchasing anything.
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